{"id":270864,"date":"2025-02-11T17:51:19","date_gmt":"2025-02-11T17:51:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/11\/year-ahead-cpi-inflation-expectations-in-january-3-3-3\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:24","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:24","slug":"year-ahead-cpi-inflation-expectations-in-january-3-3-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/11\/year-ahead-cpi-inflation-expectations-in-january-3-3-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Year-Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations in January: 3%-3.3%"},"content":{"rendered":"

[ad_1]
\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\n

From Michigan, NY Fed, and Atlanta Fed SoFIE:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Figure 1:<\/strong> Year-on-Year CPI inflation (bold black), Cleveland y\/y nowcast as of 2\/11 (black +), Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), NY Fed (blue), Survey of Firms Inflation Expectations (sky blue), all in %. Michigan January reading is preliminary. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed<\/a>, Michigan Survey of Consumers via FRED, NY Fed<\/a>, Atlanta Fed<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

The NY Fed survey shows remarkable consistency, while Michigan survey has shown a marked upward swing in the last two months (although the last observation is preliminary). The three readings range between 3% (NY Fed) to 3.3% (Michigan preliminary). The Cleveland Fed inflation expectations for January, based on survey and market data is at 2.6% as of mid-January.<\/p>\n

My guess on the CPI equivalent to 2% PCE inflation is 2.45%. In this interpretation, inflation expectations are still about 0.5 to 0.8% above target.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n