Here are key indicators followed by the NBER\u2019s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP. Seven days ago , DiMartino Booth at 13:50, says it started in Spring\/Summer 2024<\/a>.\u00a0 Heritage\u2019s EJ Antoni says it started in August<\/a>. Data for most series through December.<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q4 advance release, S&P Global Market Insights<\/a> (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (1\/2\/<\/em>2025 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Consumption surely jumped in December (and accounting for more than 100% of Q4 growth, as Jim noted). Ordinarily, I\u2019d say \u2014 from a permanent income hypothesis standpoint \u2014 this suggests optimism. However, these are hardly ordinary times, particularly with respect to expectations about tariffs. Given that consumers, according to Coibion, Gorodnichenko and Weber<\/a>, seem to believe tariffs are coming, it makes sense they might front-load their spending. This would likely show up in durables, to a lesser extent nondurables, and virtually nil in services.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Consumer durables consumption (blue), nondurables (tan), and services (green), all in Ch.2017$ in logs, 2024M01=0. Source: BEA, and author\u2019s calculations.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n The two month percent change (so from October to December) in durables is about two standard deviations (2022M01-2024M10 sample).<\/p>\n Hard to say if tariff fears showed up in the import data \u2014 but here are consumer goods imports through December (data up to November unrevised).<\/p>\n Figure 3:<\/strong> Imports of consumer goods, mn$ per month, s.a. (blue). December 2024 is advance economic statistics release.<\/em><\/p>\n Addendum 11:30am PT:<\/strong> Jan Groen<\/a> in a post today provides evidence of the impact on car imports, which is important given how integrated the North American car industry is.<\/em><\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> Groen (2025)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Nonetheless, with personal income ex-transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, civilian employment, and industrial production all up (admittedly subject to revision), it seems difficult to conclude the recession came in Spring 2024, or August 2024, as DiMartino and EJ Antoni assert.<\/p>\n Finally, a check with some alternative indicators (some of dubious nature).<\/p>\n Figure 4:<\/strong>\u00a0Implied nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates (orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and coincident index (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed [1]<\/a>,\u00a0Philadelphia Fed [2]<\/a>, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q3 third release,\u00a0<\/em>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Note that the coincident index for December (released today) also rose, as did manufacturing production and real retail sales (both reported earlier).<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/recindic_dec24c.png\")
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