Also, if egg prices are not reported, will higher egg prices matter?\u00a0From Fox5 Atlanta<\/a>:<\/p>\n The Trump Administration has frozen many federal health agencies\u2019 communications with the public until at least the end of the month.<\/p>\n The freeze affects the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), based in Atlanta, the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)\u2014entities tasked with fighting epidemics, ensuring food safety, and advancing disease research, according to a memo obtained by the Associated Press.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Bullet point 2:<\/p>\n What\u2019s the USDA\u2019s ERS forecast for egg prices?<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> Dollar price of dozen grade A eggs, n.s.a. (bold black), and January 2025 ERS forecast (teal square), and 95% prediction interval (gray +), all on log scale. Source: BLS, USDA\/ERS<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n The forecast is based on a ARIMA model with seasonals, as detailed in this technical report<\/a>. Hence, it does not take into account views on the likelihood (or not) of an avian flu outbreak, aside from that incorporated into the historical time series for egg prices.<\/p>\n Nor does it incorporate Mr. Trump\u2019s executive order<\/a>, to wit:<\/p>\n I hereby order the heads of all executive departments and agencies to deliver emergency price relief, consistent with applicable law, to the American people and increase the prosperity of the American worker. \u00a0This shall include pursuing appropriate actions to: \u00a0lower the cost of housing and expand housing supply; eliminate unnecessary administrative expenses and rent-seeking practices that increase healthcare costs; eliminate counterproductive requirements that raise the costs of home appliances; create employment opportunities for American workers, including drawing discouraged workers into the labor force; and eliminate harmful, coercive \u201cclimate\u201d policies that increase the costs of food and fuel.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Personally, I think it\u2019s conceivable that letting bird flu run amok could lower egg prices in the short term, although I\u2019m not certain of the mechanics. But then, again, I think von Paulus\u2019 6th Army will still manage to break out.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Here\u2019s the CPI food at home component and forecast.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> CPI food at home component, s.a. (bold black), and January 2025 ERS forecast (teal square), and 95% prediction interval (gray +), all on log scale. Source: BLS, USDA\/ERS<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n The 95% prediction interval encompasses a decline in food at home prices, by year-end.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
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