{"id":269602,"date":"2025-01-25T18:29:27","date_gmt":"2025-01-25T18:29:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/25\/forecasts-wsj-vs-cbo-vs-biden-troika-vs-imf\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:35","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:35","slug":"forecasts-wsj-vs-cbo-vs-biden-troika-vs-imf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/25\/forecasts-wsj-vs-cbo-vs-biden-troika-vs-imf\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasts: WSJ vs. CBO vs. Biden Troika vs. IMF"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>A comparison:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix24.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55349\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix24.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix24-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix24-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix24-624x352.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean (red), CBO January projection (light blue), Biden administration (light green), IMF WEO January forecast (blue triangle), all in billion Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, WSJ, CBO, IMF, Economic Report of the President, 2025, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Note that CBO projects under current law, Troika typically on administration policies, IMF conditions on certain assumptions, and WSJ is mean of various forecaster assumptions.<\/p>\n<p>Figure 2 displays the mean forecast and a measure of divergence (trimmed 20%):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix25.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55350\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix25.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix25.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix25-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix25-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix25-624x352.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean (red), 20% trimmed hi, low for 2025 q4\/q4 (gray lines), highest forecast (tan), lowest (gray green). Source: BEA, WSJ, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>James F. Smith is (again) at the top (I want what he\u2019s smoking!), while only one respondent is forecasting a downturn (Wesbury and Stein at First Trust).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/01\/forecasts-wsj-vs-cbo-vs-biden-troika-vs-imf\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] A comparison: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean (red), CBO January projection (light blue), Biden administration (light green), IMF WEO January<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":269603,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269602"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=269602"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269602\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/269603"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=269602"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=269602"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=269602"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}