Now that December numbers (released by DWD today<\/a>) destroy the thesis that half of year-to-date cumulative employment is accounted for by government jobs? Here\u2019s Michael Lucas\u2019 graph running up through November, from this article<\/a>:<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> Lucas (2024)<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n Here is my cumulative growth graph, decomposed into private and government components, for revised data running up through December.<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> Cumulative change in total nonfarm payroll employment (black line), private nonfarm payroll employment (green bar), in government employment (orange bar), since 2024M01, in 000\u2019s, s.a. Source: BLS, DWD, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n By my counting, by December 79% of employment growth since 2021M01 is accounted by private jobs.<\/p>\n Lessons: (1) Don\u2019t impute too much to a single observation (2) beware of data revisions. I\u2019m just thankful this time around Mr. Lucas realized that it\u2019s hazardous to look at first differences in seasonally unadjusted numbers (compared to this post<\/a>).<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Lucas_cumulativejobshares.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/cumchangeempl_2412.png\")
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