{"id":269264,"date":"2025-01-21T19:04:43","date_gmt":"2025-01-21T19:04:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/21\/150-years-of-ten-year-treasury-yield-100-years-of-the-10yr-3mo-spread\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:38","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:38","slug":"150-years-of-ten-year-treasury-yield-100-years-of-the-10yr-3mo-spread","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/21\/150-years-of-ten-year-treasury-yield-100-years-of-the-10yr-3mo-spread\/","title":{"rendered":"150 Years of Ten Year Treasury Yield, 100 Years of the 10yr-3mo Spread"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Reader Steven Kopits opines<\/a> on the CBO projection: \u201cby historical standards [1982-2007], we might expect the 10 year rate around 5.0% for the next decade\u201d. I thought it useful to look at the data:<\/p>\n

First the ten year Treasury yield.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> Ten year Treasury yields, % (blue). NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Treasury via FRED, Shiller database, CBO (January 2025), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

I\u2019d say it ill-advised to take the sample mean from 1982-2007 as representative. Here\u2019s the spread.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> 10yr-3mo Treasury spread, % (blue). NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Treasury via FRED, NBER historical series, Shiller database, CBO (January 2025), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

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