Industrial and manufacturing production (+0.9% m\/m vs. +0.3% consensus; +0.6% m\/m vs. +0.2% consensus), retail sales (control) surprise on the upside. First, indicators followed by the NBER BCDC:<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q3 3rd release,\u00a0S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (12\/2\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Second, alternative indicators, which paint a similar story of continued growth, with adjusted for CBO estimated immigration employment higher. On the other side, vehicle miles traveled was down in October and November.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong>\u00a0Implied nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates (orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source:\u00a0Philadelphia Fed [1]<\/a>, Philadelphia Fed [2]<\/a>, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q3 third release, <\/em>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/recindic_dec24b.png\")
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