{"id":268973,"date":"2025-01-17T16:23:08","date_gmt":"2025-01-17T16:23:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/17\/administration-forecast-vs-ft-booth-spf-vs-nowcast\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:41","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:41","slug":"administration-forecast-vs-ft-booth-spf-vs-nowcast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/17\/administration-forecast-vs-ft-booth-spf-vs-nowcast\/","title":{"rendered":"Administration Forecast vs. FT-Booth, SPF vs. Nowcast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-55237\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>From the Economic Report of the President, 2025, forecast finalized 7 November 2024.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix21.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55238\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix21.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"878\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix21.png 878w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix21-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix21-768x491.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/gdppix21-624x399.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 878px) 100vw, 878px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), Administration (light blue square), SPF median (green), GDPNow of 1\/16 (blue inverted triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Nowcast level calculated by iterating on relevant Q3 GDP level. A CSource: BEA 2023Q3 3rd release, Philadelphia Fed, FT-Booth macroeconomists December survey, Atlanta Fed (1\/16), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The administration\u2019s forecast is pretty close to the SPF November survey (taken around the same time), so no surprises there. Interestingly, the December FT-Booth, incorporating more information on Q3 GDP is on a higher trajectory, as is the nowcast for Q4.<\/p>\n<p>The Q4 Atlanta Fed Nowcast as of 1\/16 is 3%. New number on 1\/17.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/01\/administration-forecast-vs-ft-booth-spf-vs-nowcast\" title=\"7:06 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-01-17T07:06:31-08:00\">January 17, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/01\/administration-forecast-vs-ft-booth-spf-vs-nowcast\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] From the Economic Report of the President, 2025, forecast finalized 7 November 2024. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Administration (light blue square), SPF median<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":268974,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268973"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=268973"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268973\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/268974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=268973"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=268973"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=268973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}