{"id":268686,"date":"2025-01-13T18:53:33","date_gmt":"2025-01-13T18:53:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/13\/hazards-of-reasoning-by-anecdotes-la-fires-version\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:45","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:45","slug":"hazards-of-reasoning-by-anecdotes-la-fires-version","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/13\/hazards-of-reasoning-by-anecdotes-la-fires-version\/","title":{"rendered":"Hazards of Reasoning by Anecdotes: LA Fires Version"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Mr. <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/01\/billion-dollar-disaster-cost-to-year-to-date-assuming-nothing-else-happens-in-january#comment-318589\">Bruce Hall<\/a> speculates on the causes for the severity of the LA fires:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>I remember being in Lompoc, CA in 1968 for a month of military training. Since there wasn\u2019t enough temporary housing on base, I rented a small apartment nearby. One morning, I got up and the hill near the apartment complex was burning. No one seemed concerned. I questioned one of other tenents\u00a0 [sic] about why nothing was being done and the response was essentially that this happened every year and don\u2019t worry about it. In the 50-60 years intervening, the population has spread to areas where these fires were \u201cno big deal\u201d\u2026 not just near LA, but in many areas along the coast of California. Policies that allowed controlled burns or forest thinning were abandoned in the \u201clet nature take its course\u201d philosophy. And then the population spread out to vulnerable areas.<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/controlled-burns-california-forest-management-los-angeles-fires-2012492\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/controlled-burns-california-forest-management-los-angeles-fires-2012492<\/a><\/p>\n<p>So, now nature is taking its course through stick frame homes and everyone seems so surprised. Sure, it\u2019s dry in California, but not nearly as dry as it has been in the past. So the climate change nonsense has no bearing on the current situation. It\u2019s all about people, policies, and poor decisions. But, hey, now it\u2019s a great opportunity for the YIMBY advocates to walk the talk after they bulldoze the remnants of homes and businesses.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>I\u2019ll skip over the fact that the Pacific Palisades area has been developed for quite a few years, and given that the fire consumed houses on the shore, I\u2019m not sure Mr. Hall\u2019s preferred cause is explanatory for this destruction.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/beachfront_pacpalisades_ch42.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55198\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/beachfront_pacpalisades_ch42.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"647\" height=\"364\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/beachfront_pacpalisades_ch42.png 647w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/beachfront_pacpalisades_ch42-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/beachfront_pacpalisades_ch42-624x351.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 647px) 100vw, 647px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Notes:<\/strong> Beach front properties are left destroyed by the Palisades Fire, in this aerial view, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025 in Malibu, Calif. (AP Photo\/Mark J. Terrill). Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbs42.com\/news\/national\/ap-photo-gallery-aerial-photos-show-the-scope-of-destruction-from-the-pacific-palisades-wildfire\/\">CBS42<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Let me instead present some data on whether it\u2019s not nearly as dry as it has been in the past, not in geological time, but in the context of human time.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/modified_PDSI_califdiv6.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55197\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/modified_PDSI_califdiv6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1053\" height=\"541\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/modified_PDSI_califdiv6.png 1053w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/modified_PDSI_califdiv6-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/modified_PDSI_califdiv6-1024x526.png 1024w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/modified_PDSI_califdiv6-768x395.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/modified_PDSI_califdiv6-624x321.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1053px) 100vw, 1053px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI) for California Division 6 \u2013 \u201cSouth Coast Drainage\u201d. LOESS smoother in red line. Blue box by author denotes 1968. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncei.noaa.gov\/access\/monitoring\/climate-at-a-glance\/divisional\/time-series\/0406\/pmdi\/1\/0\/1895-2024?base_prd=true&amp;begbaseyear=1901&amp;endbaseyear=2000&amp;filter=true&amp;filterType=loess\">NOAA<\/a>, accessed 1\/13\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Yeah, sure it\u2019s been drier in California in the past \u2014 but only in recent years. Mr. Hall\u2019s visit to California in 1968 was actually in a relatively drought-free period.<\/p>\n<p>Hence, I\u2019m not sure \u201cnature taking its course\u201d is the right characterization, given that we continue to emit vast amounts of greenhouse gases year after year, with many crying global warming is a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.c-span.org\/video\/?c4647649\/user-clip-donald-trump-global-warming-hoax\">hoax<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/01\/hazards-of-reasoning-by-anecdotes-la-fires-version\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Mr. Bruce Hall speculates on the causes for the severity of the LA fires: I remember being in Lompoc, CA in 1968 for a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":268687,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268686"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=268686"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268686\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/268687"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=268686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=268686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=268686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}