{"id":268678,"date":"2025-01-13T17:52:44","date_gmt":"2025-01-13T17:52:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/13\/inflation-expectations-since-the-election-up\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:45","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:45","slug":"inflation-expectations-since-the-election-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/13\/inflation-expectations-since-the-election-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation Expectations since the Election: Up"},"content":{"rendered":"

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At 10am ET, 10 year Treasury yields were at 4.8%, up from 4.7% at Friday\u2019s close (delta 8 bps). TIPS 10 year were at 2.35% up from 2.32% (delta 3 bps). Here\u2019re some 5 year inflation expectations data over the last year.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> Five year Treasury-TIPS breakeven (blue), expected inflation (red), and median expected inflation from U.Michigan survey (green squares), all in %. Last observation 1\/11\/2025. Source: Treasury, Fed DKW, and U.Michigan.<\/em><\/p>\n

Median 5 year expectations went from 3.0% in October to 3.2% in November, and 3.3% in January (prel.). Interestingly, the 75th percentile (as opposed to median) expectation from the U.Michigan survey jumped from 5.5% in October to 7.7% in November.<\/p>\n

The NY Fed consumer survey indicates the median 3 year ahead inflation jumped from 2.54% to 2.97% going from October to December.<\/p>\n

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