{"id":268253,"date":"2025-01-06T19:50:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-06T19:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/06\/us-economic-policy-uncertainty-buckle-up\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:48","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:48","slug":"us-economic-policy-uncertainty-buckle-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/06\/us-economic-policy-uncertainty-buckle-up\/","title":{"rendered":"US Economic Policy Uncertainty: Buckle Up!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-55118\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>EPU through yesterday, and VIX as of 2pm today:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/epu_vixpix1.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55119\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/epu_vixpix1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"849\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/epu_vixpix1.png 849w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/epu_vixpix1-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/epu_vixpix1-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/epu_vixpix1-624x412.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 849px) 100vw, 849px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> EPU (blue, left scale) and 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale), and VIX (green, right scale). 1\/6 observation for VIX is as of 2pm ET. Source: policyuncertainty.com and CBOE via FRED.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Why the jump in EPU? Maybe Trump\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/01\/06\/trump-reportedly-considering-important-alteration-to-tariff-plans.html\">backtracking on universal tariffs<\/a>? Then backtracking on that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/live-updates\/2025\/01\/06\/congress\/trump-slaps-down-tariff-report-00196637\">backtracking<\/a> will presumably keep EPU up for the 1\/6\/2025 observation\u2026<\/p>\n<p>And here\u2019s the Baker, Bloom and Davis categorical EPU through December:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/tpupix_jan25.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55121\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/tpupix_jan25.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"849\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/tpupix_jan25.png 849w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/tpupix_jan25-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/tpupix_jan25-768x481.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/tpupix_jan25-624x391.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 849px) 100vw, 849px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> Trade Policy Uncertainty (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: policyuncertainty.com, and NBER.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Welcome to 2025.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/01\/us-economic-policy-uncertainty-buckle-up\" title=\"11:10 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-01-06T11:10:59-08:00\">January 6, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/01\/us-economic-policy-uncertainty-buckle-up\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] EPU through yesterday, and VIX as of 2pm today: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale) and 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale),<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":268254,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268253"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=268253"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268253\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/268254"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=268253"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=268253"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=268253"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}