Top of my list:<\/p>\n
Source:<\/strong> Kalshi<\/a>, accessed 1\/3\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n Would this be bad news? Well, yes. But worse yet given the incoming administration. For proof, I have but one word: \u201cbleach\u201d.<\/p>\n Second:<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> Kalshi<\/a>, accessed 1\/3\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n For comparison, the June 2024 CBO Economic Outlook update<\/em> projected $42.9 trillion gross Federal debt by end of FY2028 (September 2028). That means bettors think Trump will raise deficits by about $3.5 trillion relative to baseline.<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> Gross Federal debt (black), CBO projection under current law (light blue squares), implied by Kalshi 1\/3\/2025 (orange square). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates. Source: Treasury via FRED, CBO, Kalshi 1\/3\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n Remember, that\u2019s over 4 years. A Bloomberg tabulation<\/a> of Trump promises placed the cost at $11 trillion over ten<\/em> years.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/birdflu_emerg_3jan25.png\")
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