{"id":268046,"date":"2025-01-03T03:27:24","date_gmt":"2025-01-03T03:27:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/03\/my-favorite-graph-lagged-rer-nx\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:49","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:49","slug":"my-favorite-graph-lagged-rer-nx","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/03\/my-favorite-graph-lagged-rer-nx\/","title":{"rendered":"My Favorite Graph: Lagged RER-NX"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-55090\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Paul Krugman writes on <a href=\"https:\/\/paulkrugman.substack.com\/p\/the-dollar-and-the-trade-deficit?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=277517\">The Dollar and the US Trade Deficit<\/a> today, and reminds me of my favorite graph (makes an appearance each time I teach macro, and a version shows up in Chapter 13 of <a href=\"https:\/\/urldefense.com\/v3\/__http:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/highereducation\/isbn\/9781009397704__;!!Mak6IKo!KvGqCQ1RdJntc0ryBld-2gsayOPFzI8JWmzV__sr_F_NQOFlQsqWVDX5EeOvhj6ZlVP7aiAVG9NgsnMPfuZrKtfzqHRNL0YQk4y_$\">Chinn-Irwin <em>International Economics<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span id=\"more-55090\"\/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/dollar_nxexpetro.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55091\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/dollar_nxexpetro.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/dollar_nxexpetro.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/dollar_nxexpetro-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/dollar_nxexpetro-768x400.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/dollar_nxexpetro-624x325.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Log real trade weighted dollar exchange rate, lagged two years (blue, left scale), net exports ex-petroleum to GDP ratio (tan, right scale). An increase in the exchange rate series is a depreciation. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve, BEA via FRED, and NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Figure 1 is actually a mashup of Krugman\u2019s Figures 1 and 2, with the exchange rate series lagged two years.<\/p>\n<p>So, in some ways the die is cast, if macro rules the trade balance\u2026<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/01\/my-favorite-graph-lagged-rer-nx\" title=\"6:43 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-01-02T18:43:22-08:00\">January 2, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/01\/my-favorite-graph-lagged-rer-nx\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Paul Krugman writes on The Dollar and the US Trade Deficit today, and reminds me of my favorite graph (makes an appearance each time<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":268047,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268046"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=268046"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268046\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/268047"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=268046"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=268046"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=268046"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}