The Philadelphia Fed\u2019s Coincident Index is out, 2.1% m\/m annualized (2.6% y\/y):<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Implied nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates (orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source:\u00a0Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q3 third release,\u00a0S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (12\/2\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Of the above, only personal income ex-transfers (light green) is a NBER BCDC key series (BCDC key series shown here<\/a>).<\/p>\n A favorite indicator of mine is heavy truck sales.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Heavy truck sales, 000\u2019s (blue, left log scale), year-on-year growth rate (tan, right scale). Source: BEA via FRED,\u00a0 and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to see whether this indicates recession, even though we\u2019re past a local peak. For context, here\u2019s the evolution of these series before the last two recessions.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/recindic_nov24a_alt.png\")
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