{"id":267262,"date":"2024-12-22T04:05:09","date_gmt":"2024-12-22T04:05:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/22\/alternative-business-cycle-indicators-econbrowser-2\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:57","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:57","slug":"alternative-business-cycle-indicators-econbrowser-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/22\/alternative-business-cycle-indicators-econbrowser-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Alternative Business Cycle Indicators | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-55008\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>NBER BCDC indicators discussed <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/12\/business-cycle-indicators-for-november-2024\">here<\/a>. Alternative below.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24_alt.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55009\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24_alt.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"835\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24_alt.png 835w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24_alt-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24_alt-768x489.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24_alt-624x398.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Implied nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates (orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/surveys-and-data\/regional-economic-analysis\/early-benchmark-revisions\">Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q3 third release, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/marketintelligence\/en\/mi\/research-analysis\/us-monthly-gdp-index-for-october-2022.html\">S&amp;P Global Market Insights<\/a> (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (12\/2\/<\/em><em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Early\u00a0 benchmark and manufacturing suggest a slowdown. Other indicators do not.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/12\/alternative-business-cycle-indicators-3\" title=\"7:11 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2024-12-21T19:11:29-08:00\">December 21, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/12\/alternative-business-cycle-indicators-3\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] NBER BCDC indicators discussed here. Alternative below. Figure 1: Implied nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":267263,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267262"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=267262"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267262\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/267263"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=267262"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=267262"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=267262"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}