{"id":267184,"date":"2024-12-20T18:52:04","date_gmt":"2024-12-20T18:52:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/20\/business-cycle-indicators-for-november-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:58","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:58","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-for-november-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/20\/business-cycle-indicators-for-november-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators for November 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Consumption and personal income ex-transfers growth accelerate.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q3 3rd release, S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (12\/2\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

It\u2019s difficult to see the recession that some observers argued started in July 2024<\/a>, or even April 2024<\/a> \u2014 but the data are preliminary, so revisions could alter our views.<\/p>\n

The PCE deflator and core PCE deflator were both 0.1 ppts m\/m below Bloomberg consensus.<\/p>\n

With third release GDP figures released yesterday, we have the following picture of alternative measures of output.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> GDP 3rd release (bold black), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), and GDPNow of 12\/20 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP+ level is growth rates cumulated on 2019Q4 GDP. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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[ad_1] Consumption and personal income ex-transfers growth accelerate. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":267185,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267184"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=267184"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267184\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/267185"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=267184"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=267184"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=267184"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}