{"id":266948,"date":"2024-12-17T22:37:59","date_gmt":"2024-12-17T22:37:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/17\/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-december\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:10:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:10:00","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-december","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/17\/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-december\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-December"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Industrial production -0.9% vs. +0.1% consensus (m\/m).Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER\u2019s BCDC, plus monthly GDP.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24b.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-54959\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24b.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"835\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24b.png 835w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24b-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24b-768x489.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24b-624x398.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q3 2nd release,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/marketintelligence\/en\/mi\/research-analysis\/us-monthly-gdp-index-for-october-2022.html\">S&amp;P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (12\/2\/<\/em><em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing recovered somewhat, but still below consensus (+0.2% vs. +0.5%consensus\u00a0 (m\/m)).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/mfgpix_nov24.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-54958\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/mfgpix_nov24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"892\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/mfgpix_nov24.png 892w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/mfgpix_nov24-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/mfgpix_nov24-768x483.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/mfgpix_nov24-624x392.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 892px) 100vw, 892px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> Manufacturing production (blue, left log scale), manufacturing employment from BLS, 000\u2019s (tan, right log scale), manufacturing employment from ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab, 000\u2019s (green, right log scale), all s.a. Source: Federal Reserve, BLS, ADP all via FRED.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Core retail sales were also below consensus (+0.2% vs. +0.4% m\/m), while total retail sales slightly above (+0.7% vs. +0.6% m\/m).<\/p>\n<p>Hardly accelerating growth, but too early to declare recession, given increases in employment and personal income in November.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/12\/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-december\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Industrial production -0.9% vs. +0.1% consensus (m\/m).Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER\u2019s BCDC, plus monthly GDP. \u00a0 Figure 1:\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":266949,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266948"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=266948"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266948\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/266949"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=266948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=266948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=266948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}