Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> Farm worker wage, 2023$ (blue, left log scale), and share of civilian employment foreign born (tan, right scale), both s.a. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. iFarm worker wage seasonally adjusted by author using X-13, deflated using CPI-U. Source: NASS\/USDA<\/a>, BLS, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Figure 2: <\/strong>Average hourly earnings for food manufacturing for production and nonsupervisory workers, 2023$ (blue, left log scale), and share of civilian employment foreign born (tan, right scale), both s.a. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Wage deflated using CPI-U. Source: BLS, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n How did these higher labor costs fit into wholesale prices? Here are some key PPI components vs. foreign born employment share.<\/p>\n Figure 3:<\/strong> PPI component for fresh fruit, melons, nuts (blue, left log scale), and PPI component for meat, poultry, fish (pink, left log scale), and and share of civilian employment foreign born (tan, right scale). all s.a. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n If you are curious about the relative price of groceries, here\u2019s that picture.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/farm_forn.png\")
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