![\"\"](\"https:\/\/images.newscientist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/11191950\/SEI_232870844.jpg\")
<\/div>A severe storm brought on by La Ni\u00f1a in Queensland, Australia<\/p>\n
Genevieve Vallee \/ Alamy Stock Photo<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n
The average global surface temperature during 2025 will be between 1.29\u00b0C and 1.53\u00b0C \u2013 and most likely 1.41\u00b0C \u2013 above the pre-industrial average, according to a forecast by the Met Office, the UK\u2019s national weather and climate service. That is slightly cooler than 2024, which is set to be the first calendar year to exceed 1.5\u00b0C<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cA year ago, our forecast for 2024 highlighted the first chance of exceeding 1.5\u00b0C,\u201d Nick Dunstone of the Met Office said in a statement. \u201cAlthough this appears to have happened, it\u2019s important to recognise that a temporary exceedance of 1.5\u00b0C doesn\u2019t mean a breach of the Paris Agreement. But the first year above 1.5\u00b0C is certainly a sobering milestone in climate history.\u201d<\/p>\n The Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting warming to between 1.5\u00b0C and 2\u00b0C above a pre-industrial baseline. Most climate scientists now define the pre-industrial temperature as the average global surface temperature between 1850 and 1900, because this is the earliest period for which we have reliable direct measurements. However, several studies suggest that by that period, the world had already warmed significantly as a result of human activities<\/a>.<\/p>\n The 2025 outlook suggests next year will be in the top three warmest years on record<\/p>\n Met Office<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The forecasted fall in surface temperature in 2025 will be a result of heat being transferred from the atmosphere to the oceans due to the La Ni\u00f1a phenomenon, and does not mean the planet as a whole has stopped warming. The overall heat content of the oceans and atmosphere<\/a> continues to rise because of increasing carbon dioxide emissions from human activities<\/a> leading to higher atmospheric levels of CO2.<\/p>\n During La Ni\u00f1as, cooler waters rise up in the Pacific and spread across the surface, resulting in a net transfer of heat from the atmosphere to the oceans. During El Ni\u00f1os, the opposite happens. An El Ni\u00f1o in 2023 contributed to that year\u2019s record-smashing surface temperatures, which were then exceeded in 2024. However, the El Ni\u00f1o alone does not fully explain the record temperatures<\/a>.<\/p>\n Topics:<\/p>\n<\/section><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/images.newscientist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/11191548\/SEI_232827625.jpg\")
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