Here are some key indicators followed by NBER\u2019s BCDC, including employment for November (227K vs. 202K consensus, 194K vs. 160K consensus, for NFP, and private NFP respectively).<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q3 2nd release,\u00a0S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (12\/2\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n What about the reliability of employment data? Here\u2019s some measures of employment from the two BLS surveys, and a measure of private NFP from ADP, all normalized to 2024M04=0 (DiMartino Booth asserts the recession started then<\/a>).<\/p>\n Figure 2:\u00a0<\/strong>Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), from implied preliminary benchmark (orange), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (light green), from CPS adjusted to NFP concept (black), private NFP from ADP-Stanford Digital Economic Lab (pink), all in logs 2024M04=0. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Here\u2019s a picture of various vintages of NFP, compared to consensus, and early benchmark.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/recindic_nov24.png\")
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