{"id":265838,"date":"2024-12-03T22:17:06","date_gmt":"2024-12-03T22:17:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/03\/the-declining-driving-miles-intensity-of-gdp\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:10:16","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:10:16","slug":"the-declining-driving-miles-intensity-of-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/03\/the-declining-driving-miles-intensity-of-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"The Declining Driving Miles Intensity of GDP"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Trend shifted down, but sensitivity up.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> Log of ratio of vehicle miles traveled to monthly GDP (000\u2019s miles divided by bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR) (blue), and 2000-19 stochastic trend (red). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: NHTSA via FRED, SPGMI, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nonoverlapping log differenced q\/q monthly GDP regression on log differenced VMT has a adj-R2 of 0.03 pre-pandemic, and 0.31 post pandemic (coefficient rises from 0.14 to 0.23).<\/p>\n

Given the structural break, it\u2019s unclear how reliable VMT is a leading or contemporaneous indicator of recession (historically, VMT, gasoline consumption, and petroleum consumption all predicted the recession of 2022H1<\/a>).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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