{"id":265593,"date":"2024-11-29T21:37:46","date_gmt":"2024-11-29T21:37:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/29\/three-measures-of-output-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:10:18","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:10:18","slug":"three-measures-of-output-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/29\/three-measures-of-output-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Three Measures of Output | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"

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GDP, GDO, GDP+:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (blue), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP+ scaled to equal GDP at 2019Q4. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Note that none of these series evidences two consecutive quarters of negative growth (GDP evidences one quarter).<\/p>\n

What about forward looking indicators? Nowcasts indicating continued growth are depicted here<\/a>. Consumption, which accounts for about 68% of GDP, nowcasted by the Atlanta Fed to grow 3% in Q4.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> Consumption (bold black), and nowcasted consumption (light blue), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BLS, Atlanta Fed (11\/27), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

As I observed on Marketplace yesterday<\/a>, the consumer seems very resilient, in the aggregate<\/em>.<\/p>\n

So, the recession has not appeared as of October\u2019s data, and output seems to be growing into Q4. Consumption, which is a forward looking indicator in the permanent income hypothesis, also signals continued growth.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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