Industrial and manufacturing production down at consensus rate (-0.3% m\/m for both). Core retail sales +0.1% vs. consensus +0.3% m\/m. First up, series followed by the NBER\u2019s Business Cycle Dating Committee (personal income and employment are key):<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q3 1st release, S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (11\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n I don\u2019t include adjustment for weather related unemployed that can be ascribed to hurricanes; for this number in October, see Figure 1 in this post<\/a>.<\/p>\n And here are some alternative indicators (on the same vertical scale for comparability):<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates through mid-2024 (orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (light green), retail sales in 1999M12$ (black), vehicle miles traveled (VMT) (chartreuse), and coincident index (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Early benchmark is official NFP adjusted by ratio of early benchmark sum-of-states to CES sum of states. Source:\u00a0Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q2 third release\/annual update,\u00a0<\/em>and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Note that retail sales (deflated by chained CPI) has risen from 2024H1 lows.<\/p>\n Clearly, industrial production and manufacturing production are indicating a downturn. However, industrial production comprises only about 17% of value added, so it\u2019s not as much an indicator of the broad economy as in the past.<\/p>\n Addendum:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n See Jan Groen\u2019s notes here<\/a> on the implications of this week\u2019s releases for the business cycle.<\/p>\n As of today, GDPNow for Q4 at 2.5%, NY Fed nowcast at 2.0, Goldman Sachs at 2.5%.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/recindic_oct24c.png\")
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