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<\/div>Wildfires in the tropics drove some increase in CO2 emissions but the bulk was driven by burning fossil fuels<\/p>\n
Carl De Souza\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n
Carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels in 2024 are set to blow past last year\u2019s record levels, dashing hopes this year will see the planet-warming emissions peak.<\/p>\n
\u201cReducing emissions is more urgent than ever and there\u2019s only one way to do it: massively reduce fossil emissions,\u201d says Pierre Friedlingstein<\/a> at the University of Exeter, UK.<\/p>\n That is according to the latest Global Carbon Budget report<\/a>, a preliminary accounting of CO2 emissions to date with projections to the end of the year, produced by Friedlingstein and his colleagues. It was released at the COP29 summit<\/a> now underway in Azerbaijan, where countries aim to set new financial targets to address climate change.<\/p>\n Last year, some researchers were forecasting a peak in emissions<\/a> in 2024, but the report finds human-caused CO2 emissions are set to reach a record 41.6 gigatonnes in 2024, a 2 per cent rise on 2023\u2019s record. Almost 90 per cent of that total consists of emissions from burning fossil fuels. The rest is from changes in the land driven mostly by deforestation and wildfires.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n At 0.8 per cent, the growth rate of fossil fuel emissions is half that of 2023, although it remains higher than the average rate over the past decade. \u201c[The slower rate] is a good sign, but it\u2019s still miles away from where we need to get,\u201d says Friedlingstein.<\/p>\n Despite a long-term downward trend, projected emissions from land use change also increased this year, largely due to drought-driven wildfires in the tropics. Some of the increase is also down to a collapse of the carbon land sink<\/a> in 2023, which usually removes about a quarter of our annual CO2 emissions from the atmosphere. This sink declined by more than 40 per cent last year and the early part of 2024 as global temperatures spiked under the influence of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n \u201c2023 is an incredible demonstration of what can happen in a warmer world when we had peak records in global temperatures combined with El Ni\u00f1o droughts and fires,\u201d says Pep Canadell<\/a> at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in Australia, a co-author of the report. \u201cPut all these things together and last year we had almost a third less help removing atmospheric CO2 by the world\u2019s forests than we have had over the last decade.\u201d<\/p>\n While this also added to emissions in 2024, the researchers expect this \u201cland carbon sink\u201d has mostly recovered as the warming influence of El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> has faded. \u201cIt\u2019s not a long-term collapse,\u201d says Friedlingstein.<\/p>\n