Employment for October and monthly GDP for September, in the set of variables followed by the NBER\u2019s BCDC:<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q3 1st release,\u00a0S&P Global Market Insights<\/a> (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (11\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Available alternative indicators are generally up, including the coincident index for September, and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for August.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates through mid-2024 (orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (light green), retail sales in 1999M12$ (black), vehicle miles traveled (VMT) (chartreuse), and coincident index (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Early benchmark is official NFP adjusted by ratio of early benchmark sum-of-states to CES sum of states. Source: Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q2 third release\/annual update,\u00a0<\/em>and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n High frequency (weekly) indicators are mixed, with the Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI at 2.1%, and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims WECI at 1.5% (assuming trend is 2%).<\/p>\n Figure 3:<\/strong> Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), and Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US plus 2% trend (tan), all y\/y growth rate in %. Source: NY Fed via FRED<\/a>,\u00a0WECI<\/a>, accessed 11\/1\/2024, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n GDPNow for Q4 is at 2.3% today; NY Fed nowcast at 2.01%.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/recindic_oct24aa.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n