{"id":263718,"date":"2024-11-01T18:34:37","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T18:34:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/01\/prediction-markets-fwiw-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:10:38","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:10:38","slug":"prediction-markets-fwiw-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/01\/prediction-markets-fwiw-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Markets, FWIW | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-54484\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Reversion, seen over the past month. Why? Unclear given small movements in swing state polls.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24a.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-54485\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24a.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"378\" height=\"408\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24a.png 378w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24a-278x300.png 278w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 378px) 100vw, 378px\"\/><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24b.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-54486\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24b.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"360\" height=\"352\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24b.png 360w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24b-300x293.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 360px) 100vw, 360px\"\/><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24c.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-54487\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24c.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"363\" height=\"396\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24c.png 363w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24c-275x300.png 275w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 363px) 100vw, 363px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24d.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-54488\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24d.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"375\" height=\"408\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24d.png 375w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/predictit_1nov24d-276x300.png 276w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 375px) 100vw, 375px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I would expect these odds to match, pretty closely, but they don\u2019t. Liquidity?<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket way off (segmented from US participants?). RealClearPolitics average doesn\u2019t include PredictIt (nor Kalshi).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/polymarket_1nov24.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-54489\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/polymarket_1nov24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"639\" height=\"454\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/polymarket_1nov24.png 639w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/polymarket_1nov24-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/polymarket_1nov24-624x443.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>538\u2019s prediction over time. Green line marks beginning last month of data.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/538_1nov24-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-54491\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/538_1nov24-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"828\" height=\"402\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/538_1nov24-1.png 828w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/538_1nov24-1-300x146.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/538_1nov24-1-768x373.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/538_1nov24-1-624x303.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 828px) 100vw, 828px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/11\/prediction-markets-fwiw\" title=\"10:13 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2024-11-01T10:13:26-07:00\">November 1, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/11\/prediction-markets-fwiw\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Reversion, seen over the past month. Why? Unclear given small movements in swing state polls. I would expect these odds to match, pretty closely,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":263719,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263718"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=263718"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263718\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/263719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=263718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=263718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=263718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}