{"id":263523,"date":"2024-10-30T18:30:14","date_gmt":"2024-10-30T18:30:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/30\/business-cycle-indicators-gdp-and-private-nfp\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:10:40","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:10:40","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-gdp-and-private-nfp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/30\/business-cycle-indicators-gdp-and-private-nfp\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators \u2013 GDP and Private NFP"},"content":{"rendered":"

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GDP under Bloomberg consensus of 3.0% at 2.8% (GDPNow nails it). ADP private NFP change at 233K vs. Bloomberg consensus at 110K.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q3 1st release, S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (10\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Figure 2: <\/strong>Private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), implied preliminary benchmark revision of private NFP from BLS (red), and ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab private nonfarm payroll employment (green), all in 000\u2019s. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Recall, the ADP numbers are not based on a survey (so no issues about the firm birth-death model output, etc.).<\/p>\n

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Figure 3: <\/strong>Month-on-Month growth rate of Private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), implied preliminary benchmark revision of private NFP from BLS (red), and ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab private nonfarm payroll employment (green), and Bloomberg consensus (light green square), all calculated using log differences. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Contra EJ Antoni<\/a>, Kevin Hassett<\/a>, Larry Kudlow<\/a>, Peter Thiel<\/a>, and Wilbur Ross<\/a> these don\u2019t look like recession numbers to me. However, we get personal income and consumption for September tomorrow, as well as manufacturing and trade industries sales for August.<\/p>\n

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[ad_1] GDP under Bloomberg consensus of 3.0% at 2.8% (GDPNow nails it). ADP private NFP change at 233K vs. Bloomberg consensus at 110K. Figure 1:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":263524,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263523"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=263523"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263523\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/263524"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=263523"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=263523"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=263523"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}