Never just look the headline number. The \u201cwhy\u2019s\u201d matter. GDPNow down from 3.3% q\/q AR to 2.8%, while GS tracking down to 3.2%<\/p>\n
.<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> Rindels, Walker, \u201cUS Daily: Q3 GDP Preview,\u201d Goldman Sachs Global Investor Research, October 29, 2024, Exhibit 2.<\/em><\/p>\n 2.8% or 3% is less than earlier nowcasts, but still way above recession levels (think EJ Antoni, who thought the recession might\u2019ve started in July or August<\/a>).<\/p>\n If one looks at the GDPNow forecast evolution<\/a> (as of 29 October 2024), one sees that a big reason for the decline in nowcast is bigger imports. How does one interpret this?<\/p>\n Interpretation highlights the difference between accounting and economics. A higher growth rate of imports (not due to exchange rate appreciation) presumably means faster growth is expected now and in the future (more imports for consumption and investment where both are forward looking variables). However, a push up in the nowcasted level of imports holding constant nowcasts of the other components of GDP (GDP \u2261 C+I+G+X-IM) means that the nowcast of GDP is lowered (h\/t my old colleague at CEA Steve Braun for teaching me this).<\/p>\n Here, imports surprised on the upside. From the advance economic indicators release today:<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GS_rindelswalker_fig2_24oct24.png\")
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