Be prepared. It doesn\u2019t look good for Wisconsin (just like Trump 1.0 didn\u2019t but this time there isn\u2019t $18 billion on tap to bail out the soybean farmers).<\/p>\n
Source: McClelland et al. (2024)<\/a>.<\/p>\n These estimated impacts are for imports and might result in industry-specific employment increases, but almost certainly will cause manufacturing-wide employment decreases as input costs rise (recall, estimates are that the 2018 tariffs cost on net 175,000 manufacturing jobs<\/a>). For nationwide macro impacts see this post<\/a>. What happened last time Trump raised tariffs is that China (and other countries) retaliated. China retaliated by imposing tariffs on soybeans, and a whole range of other manufactured and commodity goods.<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Wisconsin exports of goods in millions $ (blue), in millions of 2000$ (tan), n.s.a. Wisconsin exports deflated by US export price index, 2000=100. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Trump administration shaded orange. Red dashed line at announcement of Section 232, 301 actions. Source: Census, BLS via FRED, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Real exports from Wisconsin declined (manufactured and commodities) as retaliation took hold.<\/p>\n As for soybeans, here\u2019s a picture of the volume of US soybean exports \u2014 essentially Brazil stepped in.<\/p>\n Source:<\/em>\u00a0<\/strong>Colusi, et al. (2024)<\/em><\/a>.\u00a0Marking for trade war in 2018 by author.<\/em><\/p>\n Interestingly, agricultural economists believe that Trump policies will hurt the agricultural sector more than Harris policies (AgWeb farm journal<\/a>), at a time when more than half of agricultural economists believe the ag economy is in recession<\/a>.<\/p>\n Source: Agweb (Oct. 10, 2024)<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Proposed_Trump_tariffs_map.png\")
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