{"id":263226,"date":"2024-10-26T00:03:35","date_gmt":"2024-10-26T00:03:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/26\/if-the-official-inflation-rate-is-correct-the-real-policy-rate-in-russia-is-now-12-4\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:10:44","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:10:44","slug":"if-the-official-inflation-rate-is-correct-the-real-policy-rate-in-russia-is-now-12-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/26\/if-the-official-inflation-rate-is-correct-the-real-policy-rate-in-russia-is-now-12-4\/","title":{"rendered":"If the Official Inflation Rate Is Correct, the Real Policy Rate In Russia Is Now 12.4%"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The Central Bank of Russia today raised the policy rate from 19% to 21%.<\/p>\n

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That\u2019s assuming (1) adaptive expectations, and (2) the inflation rate is accurately measured. (h\/t Anders Aslund) One might suspect that y\/y inflation through September was actually higher than the reported 8.6%, but who knows. (The Central Bank has an October estimate of expected inflation of 13.4%, via TradingEconomics<\/a> \u2013 I\u2019ll take their word for it, as I can\u2019t read Russian so I don\u2019t know the characteristics of this estimate.)<\/p>\n

Interestingly, while Russian GDP is expected to hit 3.5% growth this year, BOFIT\u2019s forecas<\/a>t is for 1% in 2025 and 2026 (IMF October WEO indicates 3.6% for 2024, 1.3% for 2025). These forecasts predate the increase in policy rates today (although presumably they were to some extent anticipated).<\/p>\n

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