Item 1:<\/p>\n
Source: Antoni<\/a>.<\/p>\n Item 2:<\/p>\n Source: Antoni<\/a>.<\/p>\n Not that the data are \u201cwrong\u201d (I\u2019m not a data conspiracy theorist<\/a>). Just without context, it\u2019s pretty meaningless. Here\u2019s what a relevant graph might show (motivated by the Quantity Theory):<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> M2 to GDP (blue, left scale), M2 to GDPNow (10\/18) (blue +, left scale), PCE deflator (tan, right scale), all in logs. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve, BEA via FRED, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> M2 to GDP (blue, left scale), M2 to GDPNow (10\/18) (blue +, left scale), PCE deflator (tan, right scale), all in logs, 1986Q1=0. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve, BEA via FRED, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n By the way, try a cointegration test on these series, for some illumination.<\/p>\n Some related posts here<\/a> and here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/antoni_m2graph.png\")
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