{"id":262659,"date":"2024-10-18T06:42:33","date_gmt":"2024-10-18T06:42:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/18\/eric-hovde-in-recession-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:10:48","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:10:48","slug":"eric-hovde-in-recession-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/18\/eric-hovde-in-recession-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Eric Hovde: In Recession | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-54267\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Video <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/EricHovde\/status\/1847006372610953448\">today<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>55% of Americans believe they are in a recession.<\/p>\n<p>Why? Because they have been in one.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/10\/mid-october-reading-on-business-cycle-indicators-nber-bcdc-and-alternatives\">Most indicators<\/a> suggest otherwise.<\/p>\n<p>Here are some of <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/05\/eric-hovde-predicts\">Hovde\u2019s predictions from December 2023<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"first-child last-child\">Economic Slowdown: The U.S. is likely to enter a recession, with consumers expected to deplete their savings, leading to only one potentially positive GDP quarter in 2024.<\/li>\n<li>\u2026<\/li>\n<li>Stock Market and Bond Market: The stock market is projected to experience a 15% sell-off within the next six months, followed by a moderate rally when rate cuts begin. The bond market, after three consecutive down years, is expected to see positive growth in 2024.<\/li>\n<li>Housing Market: Housing prices might decline by up to 10%, but limited inventory should provide some resilience.<\/li>\n<li>\u2026<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Here is plot of the S&amp;P500 and what the S&amp;P500 needs to be in June to match Hovde\u2019s prediction.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/sp500_hovde1.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-52345\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/sp500_hovde1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"864\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/sp500_hovde1.png 864w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/sp500_hovde1-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/sp500_hovde1-768x499.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/sp500_hovde1-624x405.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 864px) 100vw, 864px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong>\u00a0S&amp;P500 (bold black), and Hovde\u2019s prediction (red square). May observation is through 16th of May. Source: FRED, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Finally, what about the housing market? The 10% price decline is for 2024, so I assume the 10% decline is off December\u2019s level.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/house_hovde1.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-52346\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/house_hovde1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"849\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/house_hovde1.png 849w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/house_hovde1-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/house_hovde1-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/house_hovde1-624x412.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 849px) 100vw, 849px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 3:<\/strong>\u00a0S&amp;P Case Shiller 20 City house price index, s.a. (bold black), and Hovde\u2019s prediction (red square). Source: FRED and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/10\/eric-hovde-in-recession\" title=\"10:51 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2024-10-17T22:51:48-07:00\">October 17, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/10\/eric-hovde-in-recession\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Video today. 55% of Americans believe they are in a recession. Why? Because they have been in one. Most indicators suggest otherwise. Here are<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":262660,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262659"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=262659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262659\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/262660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=262659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=262659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=262659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}