{"id":262649,"date":"2024-10-18T00:28:28","date_gmt":"2024-10-18T00:28:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/18\/has-american-economic-output-been-in-decline-since-2022\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:10:48","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:10:48","slug":"has-american-economic-output-been-in-decline-since-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/18\/has-american-economic-output-been-in-decline-since-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Has American Economic Output Been in Decline since 2022?"},"content":{"rendered":"

[ad_1]
\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\n

This is the premise of a new paper<\/a> by Peter St. Onge and EJ Antoni. I have been trying to find a deflator that can yield that US GDP in 2024Q2 is 2.5% below 2019Q1 levels. Based on their discussion in their paper, as well as a video by Dr. St. Onge<\/a>, I have tried calculating a consumption deflator that is based on house prices and mortgage rates<\/a>, using the Big Mac price<\/a> (which Dr. St. Onge lauds in his video as an alternative to official statistics or PWT data), and fast food prices (specifically, the food away from home\/limited services restaurants component of the CPI).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP in Ch.2017$ (bold black), using alternative consumption deflator, housing-in-PCE weights (light blue), in 2017 fast food$ (green), in 2017 Big Macs (brown), and in 2017% per Antoni-St.Onge (red square), all in billions. Big Mac prices interpolated linearly. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, BLS, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Deflating by fast food prices seems to come closest to the Antoni-St. Onge estimate.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n