{"id":262615,"date":"2024-10-17T19:20:41","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T19:20:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/17\/big-mac-nation-and-recession-since-2022\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:10:49","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:10:49","slug":"big-mac-nation-and-recession-since-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/17\/big-mac-nation-and-recession-since-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Big Mac Nation and Recession since 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

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In a recent paper,\u00a0Antoni and St. Onge (2024)<\/a>\u00a0have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4.<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong>\u00a0Antoni and St. Onge (2024)<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

As noted in this post<\/a>, I cannot \u2014 despite my best efforts \u2014 replicate their results (wherein they claim the appropriate deflator for GDP is up 40% instead of BEA reported 21.1%, sine 2019Q1). However, if all we produced and consumed (by households, firms, the government, and foreigners) was Big MacTM<\/sup>\u2018s, then one could argue that we have been in recession since 2022 (but are just coming out in 2024Q2).<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> US GDP expressed in Big Macs (brown, left log scale), and in bn.Ch.2017$ (black, right log scale), both SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Big Mac prices interpolated linearly from semi-annual reported prices. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release\/annual update, Economist, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Note that Antoni and St. Onge do not provide a spreadsheet of calculations to show how they obtained their 40% increase in deflator.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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