Industrial and manufacturing production below consensus (-0.3% m\/m vs -0.1%, -0.4% vs -0.1%, respectively), while retail sales and core retail sales above consensus (+0.4% m\/m vs +0.3%, +0.5% vs +0.1%, respectively). Here\u2019s the resulting two pictures, first one for those indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, and the second one alternatives.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 3rd release\/annual update,\u00a0S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (10\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates through mid-2024 (orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (light green), retail sales in 1999M12$ (black), vehicle miles traveled (chartreuse), and coincident index (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Early benchmark is official NFP adjusted by ratio of early benchmark sum-of-states to CES sum of states. Source: Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q2 third release\/annual update, <\/em>and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Industrial production (which includes mining and utilities as well as manufacturing) is the only index which looks obviously in decline in September. Real retails sales are flat.<\/p>\n Q3 GDPNow is moved up from 3.2% q\/q AR on 10\/9 to 3.4% as of today. Combined with GS tracking and WSJ October survey, we have the following picture.<\/p>\n Figure 3:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), WSJ October survey mean (tan), GDPNow as of 10\/17 (light blue square),\u00a0 NY Fed nowcast as of 10\/11 (red triangles),\u00a0 St Louis Fed news nowcast as of 10\/11 (pink x), Goldman Sachs tracking as of 10\/17 (green +), FT-Booth as of 9\/14 iterated off of 3rd release (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels calculated by iterating growth rate on levels of GDP, except for Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, WSJ October survey<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/recindic_sep24c.png\")
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