Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q\/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at 3.2%.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median iterated off of 3rd release (inverted light green triangle), GDPNow as of 10\/9 (light blue square),\u00a0 NY Fed nowcast as of 10\/11 (red triangles),\u00a0 St Louis Fed news nowcast as of 10\/11 (pink x), Goldman Sachs tracking as of 10\/9 (green +), FT-Booth as of 9\/14 iterated off of 3rd release (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels calculated by iterating growth rate on levels of GDP, except for Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 SEP<\/a>\u00a0and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n The Lewis-Merten-Stock Weekly Economic Index (for data available through 10\/5) is at 2.10% AR, while the corresponding Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index is at -0.11% (so 1.89% if 2% is trend). Hard to see a recession in data available through early October, then.<\/p>\n Finally, with these estimates out, I welcome a new member to the \u201crecession camp\u201d<\/a>: Mike Shedlock<\/a>. In addition, EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge have backdated the recession\u2019s start to 2022<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/gdppix11.png\")
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