GDPNow up from 2.5% on 10\/1 to 3.2% on 10\/8 (q\/q AR), on the basis of auto sales and employment situation releases<\/a>.<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> Atlanta Fed<\/a>, accessed 10\/8\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n This is what other nowcasts\/tracking estimates are indicating.<\/p>\n Figure 4:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median iterated off of 3rd release (inverted light green triangle), GDPNow as of 10\/8 (light blue open square),\u00a0 NY Fed nowcast as of 9\/20 (red triangles),\u00a0 St Louis Fed news nowcast as of 10\/4 (pink x), Goldman Sachs tracking as of 10\/8 (orange +), FT-Booth as of 9\/14 iterated off of 3rd release (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels calculated by iterating growth rate on levels of GDP, except for Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release\/annual update, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 SEP<\/a>\u00a0and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n At 22 days to the 2024Q3 advance release (on October 30), the Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDPNow has been about as accurate as the Bloomberg consensus, at least in pre-pandemic days. Here\u2019s DeutscheBank\u2019s 2019 comparison.<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong>\u00a0Luzzetti, et al. \u201cTracking the GDP trackers,\u201d Deutsche Bank US Economic Perspectives, 24 July 2019.<\/em><\/p>\n The NY Fed nowcast has been substantially revamped, so the MAE numbers shown above are no longer relevant.<\/p>\n For what it\u2019s worth, Polymetrics<\/a> places odds of a negative 2024Q3 advance release at 2% as of 1:14 CT.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/gdpnow-forecast-evolution_8oct24.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/gdppix10a.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/DB_nowcastscompared_24jul19-1024x716.png\")
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