{"id":261936,"date":"2024-10-07T22:10:36","date_gmt":"2024-10-07T22:10:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/07\/business-cycle-indicators-for-the-euro-area-as-of-10-4-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:10:56","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:10:56","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-for-the-euro-area-as-of-10-4-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/07\/business-cycle-indicators-for-the-euro-area-as-of-10-4-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators for the Euro Area, as of 10\/4\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The CEPR-EABCN is one arbiter of business cycle chronologies in the Euro Area. The latest announcement is from April 17, 2024<\/a>. What do more recent indicators suggest (a partial survey)?<\/p>\n

GDP and employment:<\/p>\n

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Industrial production and the unemployment rate:<\/p>\n

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With employment growing through Q1 and unemployment declining from 2023 onward, it\u2019s hard to declare a recession in place \u2014 even taking into account the fact all these data will be revised over time.<\/p>\n

Nowcasts indicate near zero growth in Q3. First the Banca d\u2019Italia\/CEPR eurocoin is slightly positive as of September release (October 4)<\/a>, at 0.14% q\/q (0.6% q\/q AR).<\/p>\n

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Source: BdI<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Nowcasts from several researchers originally\/currently at the Federal Reserve Board (Cascaldi-Garcia et al., 2023<\/a>)) show near zero growth in Q3 and Q4 (as of 4 October).<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong> Cascaldi-Garcia et al. (2023)<\/a>, accessed 10\/7\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong> Cascaldi-Garcia et al. (2023)<\/a>, accessed 10\/7\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n

This nowcast indicates -0.4% and 0% q\/q AR in Q3 and Q4 respectively.<\/p>\n

Visualization of several euro area macro indicators here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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