From FoxNews<\/a>. Here\u2019s a picture of indicators followed by the NBER\u2019s BCDC over the past year. Note that August numbers are mostly up.<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 3rd release\/annual update, S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (10\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n It\u2019s possible that NBER will backdate the recession to starting in July. So far we have preliminary data for August for consumption, personal income ex-transfers, and industrial production, and don\u2019t have Q3 GDP (although all nowcasts for Q3 indicate growth). Still, NBER peak in July does seem a little unlikely to me.<\/p>\n By the way, Dr. Antoni also declared a recession a little more than two years ago<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/recindex_sep24short.png\")
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