ZeroHedge<\/a> and EJ Antoni<\/a> assert yes, relying on the household series\u2026<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> Total change in civilian employment (bold black), change attributable to government employment (blue bar), to private (tan bar). Source: BLS CPS, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n If it seems implausible that government employment should flip-flop between positive and negative values, then you might be excused. The household survey is useful for many things, but figuring out month-to-month changes in subcategories is not necessarily one of them. For instance, compare against the corresponding graph, using the establishment survey data.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Total change in civilian employment (bold black), change attributable to government employment (blue bar), to private (tan bar). Source: BLS CES, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n The household survey is well-acknowledged to be highly volatile, as shown in Figure 3:<\/p>\n Figure 3:<\/strong> First log difference of CES nonfarm payroll employment (blue), of CPS employment adjusted to nonfarm payroll concept (red). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n So too for government employment (in percent terms):<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/decomp_ce16ov1.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/decomp_payems1.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/compare_ces_cps.png\")
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![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/compare_cesgov_cpsgov.png\")
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