{"id":261750,"date":"2024-10-04T19:02:41","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T19:02:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/04\/nfp-blowout-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:10:58","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:10:58","slug":"nfp-blowout-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/04\/nfp-blowout-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"NFP Blowout | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-54065\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Private nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (big time): 223K vs 125K consensus (total NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Moreover, the previous two months\u2019 data were revised a total of 46K. Here\u2019s a graph of reported September and August release numbers, vs. Bloomberg consensus and my nowcast (reported <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/10\/nowcasting-private-nfp-using-adp-data\">yesterday<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/nfpnowcast_post.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-54066\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/nfpnowcast_post.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"892\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/nfpnowcast_post.png 892w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/nfpnowcast_post-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/nfpnowcast_post-768x483.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/nfpnowcast_post-624x392.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 892px) 100vw, 892px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Private NFP, September release (bold blue), August release (black), nowcast based on ADP (blue), +\/- 1 std error band (gray), Bloomberg consensus (red +). Source: BLS, Bloomberg, author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The implied level of September employment was well within the 68% (plus\/minus 1 std error) band for the nowcast based on the ADP series. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/web\/empsit\/cesnaicsrev.htm\">Note the mean revision (mean absolute revision) going from 1st to 3rd release is -30 (50) in 2023.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>More on the employment release to come.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/10\/nfp-blowout\" title=\"10:28 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2024-10-04T10:28:19-07:00\">October 4, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/10\/nfp-blowout\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Private nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (big time): 223K vs 125K consensus (total NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Moreover, the previous two<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":261751,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261750"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=261750"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261750\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/261751"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=261750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=261750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=261750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}