{"id":261676,"date":"2024-10-04T04:36:36","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T04:36:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/04\/nowcasting-private-nfp-using-adp-data\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:10:59","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:10:59","slug":"nowcasting-private-nfp-using-adp-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/04\/nowcasting-private-nfp-using-adp-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-54057\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>My guess for private NFP:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/nfpnowcast-1.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-54058\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/nfpnowcast-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"892\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/nfpnowcast-1.png 892w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/nfpnowcast-1-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/nfpnowcast-1-768x483.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/nfpnowcast-1-624x392.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 892px) 100vw, 892px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Private NFP (bold black), nowcast (blue), +\/- 1 std error band (gray), Bloomberg consensus (red +). Source: BLS, Bloomberg, author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The nowcast is +176K, vs +125K Bloomberg consensus.<\/p>\n<p>The nowcast is based on this regression:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/usprivnowcasteqn.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-54060\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/usprivnowcasteqn.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"322\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/usprivnowcasteqn.png 400w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/usprivnowcasteqn-300x242.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>For comparison, GS provides some big data nowcasts for total NFP (GS adds 20K to ADP to scale up to total NFP).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GS_fig1_3oct24.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-54061\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GS_fig1_3oct24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1053\" height=\"660\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GS_fig1_3oct24.png 1053w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GS_fig1_3oct24-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GS_fig1_3oct24-1024x642.png 1024w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GS_fig1_3oct24-768x481.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GS_fig1_3oct24-624x391.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1053px) 100vw, 1053px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs estimate of total NFP is at +165K. One can take 20K off to get implied private NFP (Bloomberg consensus has 23K difference).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/10\/nowcasting-private-nfp-using-adp-data\" title=\"8:30 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2024-10-03T20:30:29-07:00\">October 3, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/10\/nowcasting-private-nfp-using-adp-data\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] My guess for private NFP: Figure 1: Private NFP (bold black), nowcast (blue), +\/- 1 std error band (gray), Bloomberg consensus (red +). Source:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":261677,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261676"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=261676"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261676\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/261677"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=261676"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=261676"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=261676"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}