{"id":261008,"date":"2024-09-26T22:57:32","date_gmt":"2024-09-26T22:57:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/26\/decomposing-the-revision-to-gdo\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:11:07","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:11:07","slug":"decomposing-the-revision-to-gdo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/26\/decomposing-the-revision-to-gdo\/","title":{"rendered":"Decomposing the Revision to GDO"},"content":{"rendered":"

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One of the interesting aspects of the annual revision is that, contrary to what happens with typical (non-annual) revisions, GDI moved toward GDP, rather than the reverse.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP post-update (bold blue), GDP pre-update (blue), GDI post-update (bold red), GDI pre-update (red), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, 2024Q2 3rd release\/annual update, BEA 2024Q2 2nd release, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> GDO post-update (bold blue), GDO pre-update (blue), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, 2024Q2 3rd release\/annual update, BEA 2024Q2 2nd release, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

GDP was revised up, but GDO was revised up even more. This is shown in Ch2017$ terms in Figure 3 (where the annual revisions apply to 2019-2023).<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> Relative to 2019Q1, change in GDO post-vs-pre update (bold black line), change attributable to GDP (blue bars), change attributable to GDI (tan bars), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, 2024Q2 3rd release\/annual update, BEA 2024Q2 2nd release, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

The lion\u2019s share of the change in GDO vs pre-update is attributable to changes in GDI. This matches up with claims that BEA had been undercounting\/estimating non-labor income.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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