{"id":260488,"date":"2024-09-22T21:45:53","date_gmt":"2024-09-22T21:45:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/22\/why-do-prediction-markets-differ-in-pricing-the-election\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:11:11","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:11:11","slug":"why-do-prediction-markets-differ-in-pricing-the-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/22\/why-do-prediction-markets-differ-in-pricing-the-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Do Prediction Markets Differ in Pricing the Election?"},"content":{"rendered":"

[ad_1]
\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\n

RealClearPolitics betting average, today, has Harris-Trump 52.3 to 46.3.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source:<\/strong> RCP<\/a>, accessed 9\/22\/2024, ~ 3pm CT.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

PredictIt, the only platform able to operate in the US, is excluded from the RCP average now (it wasn\u2019t a couple weeks ago), and has Harris-Trump at 58-45, up by 13 cents.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source:<\/strong> PredictIt<\/a>, accessed 9\/22\/2024, ~ 3pm CT.<\/em><\/p>\n

Clearly, not all markets are asking the same question, and each platform has different constraints (betting limits, where operable, etc.). Still, this seems like a large gap (6 cents vs. 13 cents).<\/p>\n

By the way, despite differences in the early days of the Harris campaign, seemingly near-equivalent bets are registering similar odds now: 58-45 Harris over Trump, 59-44 for Democrats over Republicans for White House, 58-42 Harris is 47th President.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n