{"id":260258,"date":"2024-09-19T22:27:44","date_gmt":"2024-09-19T22:27:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/19\/is-manufacturing-in-recession-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:11:14","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:11:14","slug":"is-manufacturing-in-recession-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/19\/is-manufacturing-in-recession-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Manufacturing In Recession? | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-53808\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>As of August, incorporating latest capacity utilization and production data, I\u2019m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face value the preliminary benchmark revision to employment.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/mfg_short3a.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-53809\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/mfg_short3a.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"849\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/mfg_short3a.png 849w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/mfg_short3a-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/mfg_short3a-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/mfg_short3a-624x412.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 849px) 100vw, 849px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Manufacturing production (blue, left scale), implied employment from preliminary benchmark (tan, left scale), aggregate hours (green, left scale), and real valued added (red), all in logs, 2021M07=0, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, in % (black, right scale). Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/web\/empsit\/cesprelbmk.htm\">BLS<\/a>, BEA via FRED, NBER.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Note that 2023Q4 value added was higher than in 2021Q4. Unfortunately, we don\u2019t have data further than 2024Q1 (these data will be reported by on 9\/27).<\/p>\n<p>The data in support of a slowdown in manufacturing comes from diffusion indices, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/SPmfgPMI_ISMmfgPMI.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-53811\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/SPmfgPMI_ISMmfgPMI.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"820\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/SPmfgPMI_ISMmfgPMI.png 1200w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/SPmfgPMI_ISMmfgPMI-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/SPmfgPMI_ISMmfgPMI-1024x700.png 1024w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/SPmfgPMI_ISMmfgPMI-768x525.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/SPmfgPMI_ISMmfgPMI-624x426.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Source:<\/strong> TradingEconomics.com. Blue is S&amp;P, gray is ISM.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/09\/is-manufacturing-in-recession\" title=\"2:07 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2024-09-19T14:07:33-07:00\">September 19, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/09\/is-manufacturing-in-recession\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] As of August, incorporating latest capacity utilization and production data, I\u2019m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face value the preliminary benchmark revision<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":260259,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/260258"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=260258"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/260258\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/260259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=260258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=260258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=260258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}