{"id":259834,"date":"2024-09-16T17:30:26","date_gmt":"2024-09-16T17:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/16\/heterogeneous-responses-of-sentiment-expectations-to-economic-news\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:11:18","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:11:18","slug":"heterogeneous-responses-of-sentiment-expectations-to-economic-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/16\/heterogeneous-responses-of-sentiment-expectations-to-economic-news\/","title":{"rendered":"Heterogeneous Responses of Sentiment, Expectations to Economic News"},"content":{"rendered":"

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From the Michigan survey of consumers<\/a>:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> Consumer Sentiment for Democratic\/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Independent (gray, left scale), Republican\/lean Republican (red, left scale), SF Fed News Sentiment index (black, right scale). Vertical dashed line when PredictIt probability of Harris win > Trump win. Sept observation for sentiment is preliminary; for news sentiment, through 9\/11. Source: University of Michigan, SF Fed.<\/em><\/p>\n

As economic news deteriorated in August, Republican\/lean Republican sentiment fell as anticipated. However, Democratic\/lean Democratic sentiment rose. This shift seems to occur when assessed probabilities for a Democratic presidential candidate rise.<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong> PredictIt<\/a>, accessed 9\/15\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n

The disparity in responses is more obvious when looking at expectations, as noted by Goldman Sachs in their 9\/13 note.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> Consumer expectations for Democratic\/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Independent (gray, left scale), Republican\/lean Republican (red, left scale). Vertical dashed line when PredictIt probability of Harris win > Trump win. Sept observation for expectations is preliminary; for news sentiment, through 9\/11.Source: University of Michigan.<\/em><\/p>\n

Since July the increase is 10% for sentiment (average of current conditions and expectations), and 15% for expectations. Note that the survey was taken before<\/em> the debate.<\/p>\n

New poll out from FT-Ross School\/UMich indicates that Harris has pulled ahead of Trump in terms of views on economic management, although the difference is within the statistical margin of error. (FT-Michigan Ross poll \u2022 Poll of 1,002 registered voters conducted Sep 11 \u2013 12; margin of error \u00b13.1pp. Those who said neither, both or not sure were not included).<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong> FT<\/a>, 9\/16\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n

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[ad_1] From the Michigan survey of consumers: Figure 1: Consumer Sentiment for Democratic\/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Independent (gray, left scale), Republican\/lean Republican (red, left<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":259835,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/259834"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=259834"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/259834\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/259835"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=259834"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=259834"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=259834"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}