{"id":259790,"date":"2024-09-16T03:58:44","date_gmt":"2024-09-16T03:58:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/16\/bofit-russia-continued-on-a-more-moderate-growth-path-in-july\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:11:19","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:11:19","slug":"bofit-russia-continued-on-a-more-moderate-growth-path-in-july","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/16\/bofit-russia-continued-on-a-more-moderate-growth-path-in-july\/","title":{"rendered":"BOFIT: \u201cRussia continued on a more moderate growth path in July..\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

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From BOFIT<\/a>:<\/p>\n

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Russian economic growth slowed significantly in June, but sustained its lower pace in July. According to Russian economic development ministry\u2019s preliminary estimate, on-year GDP growth in June and July was around 3\u00a0%, down from 4.5\u00a0% in the April-May period. The general indicator comprising Russia\u2019s five core production sectors suggested that the volume of seasonally-adjusted economic output contracted on-month in June, but the contraction stopped in July.<\/p>\n

The volume of seasonally-adjusted industrial output fell further in July, however. Industrial output has declined in the latest months, both in the extractive industries and manufacturing. Growth also seems to have stalled in construction and retail sales, with no hints of recovery in July. The rapid increase in agricultural output (5\u00a0% y-o-y) supported economic output overall in July.<\/p>\n

\u2026<\/p>\n

The latest outlooks of most major institutional forecasters published in July or August see Russian GDP growing in the range of 3\u20133.5 % this year and around 1.5 % next year. The latest CBR forecast sees Russian GDP increasing by 3.5\u20134 % this year and 0.5\u20131.5 % next year.<\/p>\n

Russian industrial output has declined in recent months
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<\/strong>Sources: Rosstat, CEIC, BOFIT.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Note that as output decelerates, the Central Bank of Russia has raised the policy rate from 18% to 19% (as of 9\/13).<\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/p>\n

TradingEconomics tags expected inflation at 12.9% (I don\u2019t know how they calculate this number). Taken at face value, that implies 6% real interest rates.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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