{"id":259734,"date":"2024-09-15T00:08:35","date_gmt":"2024-09-15T00:08:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/15\/ft-booth-september-survey-of-macroeconomists-growth-or-recession\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:11:19","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:11:19","slug":"ft-booth-september-survey-of-macroeconomists-growth-or-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/15\/ft-booth-september-survey-of-macroeconomists-growth-or-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"FT-Booth September Survey of Macroeconomists: Growth or Recession?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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For GDP, no recession on the short horizon:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September median forecast (blue box), NY Fed nowcast (red triangles), SPF August (tan line), WSJ July (light green), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, FT-Booth September survey<\/a>, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, WSJ, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

There\u2019s been a shift upward in the FT-Booth survey GDP level (implied q4\/q4 2024 growth has risen from 2.0% in June survey to 2.3% in September). Given Q2 advance growth, this implies 2.4% in 2024H2 (SAAR).<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September median forecast (blue box), 10%ile\/90%ile (gray +), FT-Booth June median forecast (light blue box), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, FT-Booth September survey<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Neither the median nor 10%ile paths are suggestive of recession. The modal response is for a recession in 2026Q1 onward, as in June\u2019s survey.<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong> FT-Booth<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

The proportion of respondents that thought the recession would start in 2024 has dropped from 12% to 7%, while the proportion that thinks the recession will start in 2026Q1 or later has risen from 52% to 56%.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[ad_1] For GDP, no recession on the short horizon: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September median forecast (blue box), NY Fed nowcast (red triangles),<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":259735,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/259734"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=259734"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/259734\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/259735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=259734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=259734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=259734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}