{"id":259730,"date":"2024-09-14T20:53:21","date_gmt":"2024-09-14T20:53:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/14\/august-2024-wisconsin-economic-outlook-forecast\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:11:19","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:11:19","slug":"august-2024-wisconsin-economic-outlook-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/14\/august-2024-wisconsin-economic-outlook-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"August 2024 Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.revenue.wi.gov\/Pages\/Report\/WI-Economic-Outlook.aspx\">Released yesterday<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p>Based upon the S&amp;P Global national forecast, DoR concludes:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>Wisconsin employment is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024. Wisconsin\u2019s unemployment rate was 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024, a full percentage point below the US rate of 4.0%. The forecast expects Wisconsin\u2019s unemployment rate to peak at 3.6% in 2027, compared to 4.6% nationwide.<\/li>\n<li>Wisconsin\u2019s personal income increased 4.4% in 2023 and just 0.6% after adjusting by inflation. Nominal wages grew a strong 5.7%, offsetting a decline of 2.4% in proprietors\u2019<br \/>income. The forecast anticipates nominal personal income to grow 4.3% in 2024. Real personal income is expected to increase 1.7% in 2024 as inflation slows.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>For employment:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/wisconsinempl_aug24.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-53673\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/wisconsinempl_aug24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"864\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/wisconsinempl_aug24.png 864w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/wisconsinempl_aug24-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/wisconsinempl_aug24-768x499.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/wisconsinempl_aug24-624x405.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 864px) 100vw, 864px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), forecast based on US NFP (red), and Department of Revenue May 2024 forecast (light tan lines), August 2024 forecast (blue lines), all in 000\u2019s, s.a. Forecast based on first log differenced Wisconsin and US employment, 2021M07-2024M06, dynamically forecasted. Vertical axis is on log scale. Source: BLS, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.revenue.wi.gov\/Pages\/Report\/WI-Economic-Outlook.aspx\">DoR<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>As for GDP:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/wisconsingdp_aug24a.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-53677\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/wisconsingdp_aug24a.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1008\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/wisconsingdp_aug24a.png 1008w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/wisconsingdp_aug24a-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/wisconsingdp_aug24a-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/wisconsingdp_aug24a-624x357.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> Wisconsin GDP (bold black), and Department of Revenue August 2024 forecast (blue line), nowcast based on 2021Q3-2023Q4 in first log differences (red), +\/- 1 standard errors (gray lines), all in bn.Ch2017$ SAAR. Vertical axis is on log scale. Source: BEA, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.revenue.wi.gov\/Pages\/Report\/WI-Economic-Outlook.aspx\">DoR<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>One mystery is why BEA\u2019s estimates of Wisconsin GDP is seemingly detached from income measures (total salaries and wages, employment, Philadelphia Fed\u2019s coincident index). It might come about because national level \u2014 as opposed to state level \u2014 industry specific price deflators are used, but that\u2019s mere speculation on my part. The adjusted R<sup>2<\/sup> between quarterly growth rates over the 2021Q3-2023Q4 is 0.70. The forecasted level is shown in red. Given sampling uncertainty, it\u2019s possible to hit the DoR forecast.<\/p>\n<p>More on the Wisconsin economy from <a href=\"https:\/\/pbswisconsin.org\/news-item\/j-michael-collins-on-the-us-economy-and-low-wage-workers\/\">Michael Collins (LaFollette) on WPR<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/pbswisconsin.org\/news-item\/laura-dresser-on-the-state-of-working-in-wisconsin-in-2024\/\">Associate Director Laura Dresser on WIsconsin PBS (8\/30)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/09\/august-2024-wisconsin-economic-outlook-forecast\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Released yesterday: Based upon the S&amp;P Global national forecast, DoR concludes: Wisconsin employment is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024. Wisconsin\u2019s unemployment rate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":259731,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/259730"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=259730"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/259730\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/259731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=259730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=259730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=259730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}