{"id":259114,"date":"2024-09-10T03:41:05","date_gmt":"2024-09-10T03:41:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/10\/nowcasts-updated-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:11:25","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:11:25","slug":"nowcasts-updated-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/10\/nowcasts-updated-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Nowcasts \u2013 Updated | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"

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GDPNow Q3 growth nowcast now up to 2.5%, from 2.1%.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters August median forecast (tan), GDPNow of 9\/9 (blue square) and of 9\/4 (blue open square), NY Fed (red triangle), St. Louis Fed (light green inverted triangle), Goldman Sachs (teal circle), all in bn.Ch.2017$. Nowcasts are as of 9\/6 except where noted; nowcast levels calculated iterating growth rate to reported 2017Q2 2nd release GDP levels. Source: BEA 2024Q2 2nd release, Philadelphia Fed for SPF<\/a>, Atlanta Fed (9\/9), NY Fed (9\/6), St. Louis Fed (9\/6), Goldman Sachs (9\/6), and author\u2019s calculations.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

The employment situation and wholesale trade reports raised the nowcast. While consumption growth is nowcasted for 3.5%, vs. 3.8% on 8\/30. What\u2019s the relative accuracy of GDPNow? I\u2019ve not seen recent assessments, but here\u2019s DeutscheBank\u2019s 2019 comparison.<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong>\u00a0Luzzetti, et al. \u201cTracking the GDP trackers,\u201d Deutsche Bank US Economic Perspectives, 24 July 2019.<\/em><\/p>\n

We are now about 50 days out from the advance release for Q3 (on 10\/30), so GDPNow is about as accurate on average as the Bloomberg consensus. (The NY Fed nowcast has been substantially revamped, so the MAE numbers shown above are no longer relevant.)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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